Madden Predicted The Win. Again.

8 02 2010
Well, Super Bowl XLIV is in the books, and the New Orleans Saints won by a score of 31 over the Indianapolis Colts’ 17.

Both in Madden and in RL, the Saints said "Sit Down" to the Colts

Every year since 2004, the folks at EA Sports who make the Madden NFL games run a simulation of the year’s championship game.  This year, with Madden NFL 10, they did indeed predict a Saints win (albeit by a much narrower score of 35-31).

So, what is the track record for the Madden simulations versus the reality of the Super Bowls of recent history?  That’s exactly what I decided to check out, and here is the information that I found:

In Madden NFL 2005 (created in 2004, silly people), the simulation run by EA predicted that the New England Patriots would beat the Philadelphia Eagles with a score of 41-31.

In reality, the Patriots DID win that year, but by a score of 24-21.

In Madden NFL 2006, the simulation predicted that the Pittsburgh Steelers would win over the Seattle Seahawks, 24-19. That year the Steelers did beat the Seahawks, 21-10.

In Madden NFL 07, it was predicted that it would be the Colts over the Chicago Bears, 38-27.  Once again, Madden was right, with the score of the Super Bowl being 29-17, Colts.

Madden NFL 08 predicted that the Patriots would beat the New York Giants, by a score of 38-30.  This time, New York pulled the upset, and beat the Pats 17-14.

The simulation of Madden NFL 09 said that the Steelers would trump the Cardinals 28-24.  And in the most accurate simulation yet, the Steelers indeed did win that game, with a final score of 27-23.

So, what’s the final tally?  As of Super Bowl XLIV, Madden has predicted the winner correctly five times out of six attempts, giving it a slightly above 83% accuracy rating.

However, like all things Madden, some things are simply larger than life.  The series has over-estimated the scores by 47 points for the winning team, and 68 points for the losing team, throughout the simulation’s history.

Final Score?  Madden seems to be a pretty good team picker, but lousy if you’re trying to predict the final scores.  Hope your Super Bowl Sunday was a great time, and here’s looking forward to next year’s Big Game and Big Sim. 🙂

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