The Predictions Post, 2010 Edition

What a year 2009 was!  My previous post talked about some of the games that stole the show, and stole our goodwill, as well.  However, another post from the past that’s worth reviewing (and re-doing this year) is the one where I predict what would happen in 2009.  Surprisingly, I got a lot right.  Let me first suggest you check out the post from last year (so you know I’m not simply making this stuff up), and then let’s see how I did.  Also, at the end of this post, I’ll make some more predictions for the remainder of 2010.

Now with the power of FOUR GameCubes!

First off, I bombed a bit with the WiiHD (which I called the Wii II).  While there have been hints and theories (I’m looking at YOU Michael Pachter…) nothing firm has been said about the next Nintendo home console.  And in retrospect, why should they?  They’re printing money on the consoles and their 1st-party software.  Soccer moms all over the world aren’t going to re-up to get HD graphics, because it’s highly likely that these same people don’t even know what they’re missing.  This story from the NPD Group (Sept, 2009) says that the majority of Wii owners only own that one console.  Only 14 percent owned a 360 or PS3.  So they don’t know what to compare visual fidelity with, so why would they care?  So, again, I failed there.  I still expect to hear WiiHD hard fact sometime this year, but the actual console release probably won’t be expected until 2011 or more likely, 2012.

Next, I got the PS3 predictions almost perfect:  I said they’d drop their price (they did), not give

George Foreman ain't got NOTHING on this!

up on the console, in favor of talking news of a new one (bingo), and that they would release some great exclusives (finally) as well as start to catch up with the 360 in terms of sales competition.  So, while they dropped their price significantly, leading to much higher sales (in fact, comparably selling with the 360 month after month in recent months), lifetime stats still show the PS3 firmly in 3rd place, at least in the US.  And with exclusive content like Uncharted 2, as well as Demon’s Souls, inFamous, Killzone 2, Ratchet & Clank: A Crack In Time, and many more on the PSN, 2009 was the first year it made sense to actually buy the darn thing.

Predictions about the Xbox 360 are a little sketchy, because well, yeah.  While Blu-Ray DID win the HD-format wars, the 360 took the downloadable market route with the Zune HD store instead of adding a Blu-Ray drive to the console itself.  Again, this was a silly prediction in the first place, but I bombed it bad.  However, the 360 is firmly established as the 2nd place (sales-wise) home console.  It remains the lead SKU for many “now-gen” games, due to the ease of programming, and the ubiquity of the console, leading to a higher sales ratio.  This one, yeah.  I chalk it up as a rookie mistake. 🙂

StarCraft 2 hasn’t come out yet.  We’ll be lucky to see it in 2010, in my opinion.  And Diablo 3 is firmly in 2012, if you ask me.  However, I still stick to my guns that relative to Diablo 3, and in the United States, StarCraft 2 will NOT live up to expectations, sales-wise.  It may be an excellent game (I expect it will, with Blizzard at the helm) but it’s going to be primarily for those Asian markets, not the US, and US customers won’t attach as well.  Valve DID come out with Left 4 Dead 2, (which to be honest, was a surprise to MANY, not just myself), but no firm announcement on Half Life: Episode 3.

Finally, the Wii DID get storage support (although not in the form of another add-on device, but) through SD card playable games, and while my “pen” joke was silly, the peripheral wars wage on, with all sorts of add-ons, simulation-enhancers, etc…  Heck, even Nintendo previewed the “Vitality Sensor”.  Which I can’t figure out the value of yet…

And, the Nintendo DS remained the Knock-Out Champeen of the Century, with sales out of this world…Surprise, surprise…

2010 – The Next Generation (is announced)

Prediction #1

The Wii will remain far and away the #1 seller of the year in home consoles.  However, market share will decrease, as more and more 360 and PS3 units sell.  However, we will get some good, real information on the next Wii, which will have 1080p support, as well as Motion-Plus waggle built-in.  Storage will not be an issue, and they will entirely re-think the “channel” idea, for a more interactive interface.

Prediction #2

The PS3 will begin to sell monthly in higher numbers than the 360.  By the year’s end, the 360 will still likely have a higher penetration rate, but that margin will have decreased significantly.  This will be largely due to God of War 3 making a HUGE impact on the sales of the PS3, as well as the long-anticipated release of Grand Turismo 5, which will be an excellent game, and the one many people were waiting for prior to plunking that money down for the PS3.  The console itself will see one more price drop before the end of the year, although not nearly as significant as the one we saw near the end of 2009.  This new price drop will occur in late October or early November, to boost holiday sales.

Prediction #3

The 360 will see some true exclusives (something kind of rare in 2009), and those exclusives will kind of suck.  Not terribly, but they won’t move hardware as Microsoft had hoped, which helps the PS3 gain some market share, and keeps Nintendo as the leader for another year.

We WILL however, get not only specs on the next Xbox, we will get a release date.  This also will hurt sales of the current console, but with a price drop (again, around the holidays), this new system (set to release in early 2012) will be highly Natal-centric.  Speaking of the Project Natal, the add-on will be pretty successful, but will sadly go the “minigame” route, rather than be the “Milo” experience we all hoped for.  The Natal concept still promises a lot more possibility, however, so expect to see some great things (and finally the processing power to back it up well) in the new console.

Prediction #4

Playstation will get out of the portable business.  Seeing year after year of disappointing returns on the PSP brand, and with fewer and fewer developers putting quality product out there, Sony Computer Entertainment America (SCEA) will go instead into a market that is based upon the PS3’s connectivity.  Instead of being a simple fringe-user, hardly advertised benefit to the PSP, the new device will almost solely deliver the promise that the PS3 will be our “always” device for now and the future.  It will connect to let you play not only PS2-type games from the PSN, but it will also let you play different versions (or story-building side-missions) of the games you already purchased with the PS3, as well as do full voice-chat as a standard for every game that ships for the device.  It will be an e-reader as well, and will finally have two analog sticks.  It will be rumored to have six-axis controls as well, but will dump those at the last-minute to drop the price (which will be pretty exorbitant).

Prediction #5

We will get our first real view of how a service like “On-Live” will work, with a real product being REALLY available for consumer purchase around the time of E3.  While it won’t be a huge seller, it will sell enough subscriptions to remain in business, with a lot of promise for the future.

Prediction #6

Downloadable content and gaming will finally break the 25% (of total game sales) mark, and you’ll start to see major developer houses coming out with some top-shelf products ONLY available as downloads (at least initially…discs may come in the form of “Greatest Hits” styles).  Due to the success of Trials HD and Shadow Complex, CHAIR will be a huge leader in the new downloadable economy.

So that’s it!  My predictions for 2010 are locked in, and ready to be ridiculed.  Here’s hoping it’s another great year for games!

2009 – A Look Back At The Year In Gaming

Looking back at this post, where I talked about my most anticipated games for 2009, I can’t help but be amazed at how after all these years, so many games that seem like sure-fire hits simply don’t make the cut when viewed in retrospect, and how many come out the gates with little fanfare and end up becoming beloved classics.

So, with that in mind, let’s look at that old post and contrast with what really happened in 2009.

What surprised me most about this past year’s games was not that the games I’d been looking forward to were bad, or terrible…it’s that they were so woefully generic or vanilla, that they simply didn’t connect as promised, all too often.  The games I’m thinking of most in this area were MadWorld, and Halo Wars.

Both games were exactly as promised.  Halo Wars, was, indeed an RTS game set in the world of Halo.  However, that’s about where the innovation stopped.  Sure, it was a decent control scheme to bring RTS to the console in terms of GUI and little ways the game was tailored for the 360, however, in general, this also left the game a bit neutered, and less than exciting, despite the thrill of “zerg-rushing” with a pack of Warthogs.

A similar problem dogged MadWorld as well, as the game’s visuals were striking, stark and unique.  But in the end, repetition (along with over-the-top silly commentary) killed the artistic purity of the idea.

Both games are not bad at all, in fact, I’d still say that missing either would be a detriment to understanding what 2009 offered.  It’s simply that at the same time of being good games, they were nothing more than good, when most of the gaming press and enthusiast fanbase expected greatness.  Neither really delivered, and that’s the disappointment more than anything else.

Image via Wikipedia

My biggest hopes for the year seemed to come from one game that hasn’t yet arrived.  This “coming-soon” game, Heavy Rain from Quantic Dream looks pretty much as-promised in terms of the visuals as well as the new style of gameplay (that tends to work more like EXTREMELY interactive fiction, rather than actual…you know, gaming).  However, while I haven’t gotten my hands on the game yet to verify this, most recent previews/reviews point the the fact that the dialogue is a bit stilted, and that the voice acting is stiff, which, as a more narrative experience (as opposed to simply a gaming experience), may stifle sales of the game and potentially,  kill this “choose-your-own-adventure-digital-edition” fledgling genre…

Image via Wikipedia

As for the game that lived up to expectations last year, Resident Evil 5 sold extremely well, played just as I had hoped it would, and worked well in a very game-y “extra modes” way, while still maintaining the momentum (although, not really growing) of it’s most recent predecessor.  Co-Op play really changed the face of the survival-horror genre, and was implemented quite well.  This was surprising, and I think really gave the game a lot of replayability, as did the leaderboard aspect of the game (something entirely new for a horror franchise).

Dragon Age: Origins, also was a game that a lot of people had high hopes for, but were worried, because screenshots did not show the game well.  And while BioWare‘s pedigree for RPGs with story held a lot of cred with the gaming public, no one was sure whether this would be a step forward or a large step backward, in terms of the genre.  However, BioWare has once more, hit it out of the park, delivering a very compelling, rich, lore-filled world in which every single character resides.  The story is epic enough to lend drama, but personalized enough to make the player care about the small decisions and conversations.

Image by sean geer via Flickr

Image via Wikipedia

Beyond what I knew about at the time of writing that anticipation post, more than a couple really great games came out, some out of the blue.  First was Capcom’s Street Fighter IV, which really revitalized and brought some credibility back to the fighting genre.  Also definitely worth mentioning (and also one that was unexpectedly great) was Rocksteady Studios’ Batman: Arkham Asylum.  While the Batman title brought some cool innovation, story/character depth,  and a lot of fun gameplay to 3rd-person brawlers, Street Fighter IV took all of the conventions of the fighting genre and refined them (with some pretty decent net-code for online matches) into something that felt both new and familiar at the same time.

Image by louisvolant via Flickr

Another suprise hit of 2009 was Assassin’s Creed 2.  Obviously Ubisoft learned a lot from the faults of the original game.  AC2 really developed the story of the Desmond character to a satisfying end, as well as refined and expanded the gameplay which kept the player from feelings of repetition, which was a major complaint in the first game.  Add to this, attractive “side quests” as well as the promise of expansion through downloadable content, and Assassin’s Creed 2 delivers in a way that many other games simply couldn’t.

Image by misplacedparadox via Flickr

Rounding off my list of games that were anticipated, or surprises, is Uncharted 2.  In a year of sequels and more story-driven content, Uncharted 2 really did the best job of pulling off the trifecta of gaming fun.  The story was interesting, and acted well, really giving you a sense of “being in for the ride” much like a good action film.   Secondly, the game plays tightly (gunfights are exciting, not painful), and there’s enough new types of content to prevent you from feeling that it’s simply a rehash of the previous title.  Finally, the visual quality of the game is really top-notch.  So many people have referred to the game as very cinematic, or film-like, and the care which went into crafting the character models, the environments, and the set pieces really are the key to that feeling of realism and getting sucked-in.

All in all, the year (like many others) had a lot of ups and downs, wild successes as well as letdowns.  However, the number of quality, engaging, and replayable titles of this past year really stun me, when one considers that so many developers are making some bold and unique choices with their games.  Sure, Bungie put out some games.  Sure, Ubisoft did as well, but Capcom had a stellar year in terms of original IP, revitalized old IP, and flat-out sales.  relative newcomers like Quantic Dream got a lot of news, and Rocksteady came out of nowhere to claim a (rightful) place amongst the standard greats in the industry.  And who would have predicted that a year chocked-full of sequels would leave us so immensely happy?   It was definitely an interesting and good year for gaming overall, and one can only look forward to now, 2010, when so many games are still on the verge of coming out, all year, and think “what can we anticipate this time?” 

(And yes, that post will come.  Soon.)

What Is Your Dream Game?

I think that there comes a time in every gamer’s life where they’ve contemplated the game that they would make, if given the budget, staff, and freedom to do so.  Of course, many of these ideas are half-baked, because you obviously don’t have the staff, the freedom, and most importantly, the budget to get that game made anyway…so why bother detailing your personal dream game?  

But with the advent of the iPhone and iPod Touch, Microsoft’s XNA initiative, and many avenues for flash gaming on the PC front, homebrew gaming is alive, well, and flourishing in staggeringly increasing numbers.  Many people who simply had a great idea, are finding ways to cheaply and profitably create and market their games to a mass audience.  

I’ve often wondered what kind of game I’d like to create.  Of course, over time it’s changed.  When I was younger, it would have been a Mario clone, of course.  An epic platformer, where the main character (some hybrid of Mario, with a Bionic Commando-style grappling arm) would traverse levels with trapeze-like grace, and that speed of platform traversal would be as important as health and powerups.  

When I got older (junior high and high school) and got into PC gaming, I wanted to create the next Starcraft-style RTS.  I wanted an (of course) epically-gigantic list of creatures and vehicles to create, and a complex world of trading, resource harvesting, and strategy on par with the world’s best table-top strategy games like Axis and Allies, or Shogun (rebranded as Samurai Swords, I just learned…click for more detail)  My ideal game would have involved the cyberpunk movement, as I had recently read William Gibson’s Neuromancer (my favorite novel, to this day), and thought the world had enough complexity to merit a street-grid based RTS (with RPG elements, in terms of leveling characters, unique stat-bonus items, and story elements)  including thugs, fixers, wireheads, and large, intimidating corporations.  (I actually still really like this idea, by the way…)

Now, as I’m older still, I see the value of short-burst gaming.  I’m not ditching my Bioshocks or my Resident Evil 4s, or the like, but I’m finding great joy in titles like Rock Band, which can occupy a couple songs, or an entire evening, Portal, which is perfect for snack-sized gaming, or even super-casual fare over at Kongregate.  I think that if I made a game these days, it would have to be profitable, of course (finally having to make money for a family, that is) and therefore find the iTunes App Store to be most appealing.  However, try as I might, I can’t come up with something original enough to break through the noise.  I don’t know if that’s a function of age, or simply a matter of “nothing is new under the sun”.  Either way, it’s a bit saddening.  So I’m wondering…

Have any of you awesome readers have come up with any (epic or otherwise 🙂 ) game designs or ideas that you’d be willing to share.  Please comment!!!

Videogame Covers, if they were “Penguin Classics”

Thanks to Tina Sanchez from 1UP for Twittering about this amazing thread (WARNING: There is a LOT of profanity on this thead!  You can totally skim it though, and just look at the pics.  I’d say it’s worth it, but don’t let me pull ya down into something you’re not okay with!!!)  over at Something Awful.  What they’re attempting to do is take video games and create “classic covers” for future reissues.  It’s an excellent photoshop idea, and I’d love to see what the readers here come up with, if you trend towards graphic arts!

Click the jump to see a couple more of my favorites! (don’t worry, there’s still PLENTY to see on the SA forums too)  

(Apparently there’s an issue with the images after the jump – sometimes they show up, sometimes they don’t.  If you want to see them and they’re not showing, click the Something Awful link above to check them out in the original thread!)

Videogame Covers, if they were "Penguin Classics"

Thanks to Tina Sanchez from 1UP for Twittering about this amazing thread (WARNING: There is a LOT of profanity on this thead!  You can totally skim it though, and just look at the pics.  I’d say it’s worth it, but don’t let me pull ya down into something you’re not okay with!!!)  over at Something Awful.  What they’re attempting to do is take video games and create “classic covers” for future reissues.  It’s an excellent photoshop idea, and I’d love to see what the readers here come up with, if you trend towards graphic arts!

Click the jump to see a couple more of my favorites! (don’t worry, there’s still PLENTY to see on the SA forums too)  

(Apparently there’s an issue with the images after the jump – sometimes they show up, sometimes they don’t.  If you want to see them and they’re not showing, click the Something Awful link above to check them out in the original thread!)